For the record, I will say that my numbers are educated guesses based partly on the last election, partly on the tides of change happening in this election, partly on my desire to see a stable majority government in Canada, partly on my seat by seat analysis, partly on the pollsters data and finally to throw much of this out the window, partly on my decision to move a few blocks of seats out of sheer gut instinct.
i.e. to figure out how I got these numbers, you will likely yank your hair out for hours.
In any case here they are.
Nationally:
Conservatives – 170 166
New Democrats – 61 103
Liberals – 57 33
Bloc Quebecois – 19 4
Green Party – a big fat goose egg 1
Independent – 1 (Sorry Helena, it ain’t you) 0
Provincially:
Alberta:
Conservative – 28 27
All other parties – 0
NDP – 1
BC:
Conservative – 25 21
NDP – 8 12
Liberal – 3 2
All others – 0
Green Party – 1
Manitoba:
Conservative – 10 11
NDP – 4 2
All others – 0
Liberal – 1
New Brunswick:
Conservative – 8 8
Liberal – 1 1
NDP – 1 1
All others – 0
Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal – 3 4
Conservative – 2 1
NDP – 2 2
All others – 0
Nova Scotia:
Liberal – 5 4
Conservative – 4 4
NDP – 2 3
All others – 0
Nunavut:
Conservative – 1 1All others – 0
Ontario:
Conservative – 63 73
Liberal – 27 11
NDP – 16 22
All others – 0
PEI:
Conservative – 2 (bubbye Wayne Easter) 1
Liberal – 2 3
All others – 0
Quebec:
NDP – 27 59
Bloc – 19 4
Conservative – 14 5
Liberal – 14 7
All others – 0
Saskatchewan:
Conservative – 12 13
Liberal – 1 1
NDP – 1 0
All others – 0
Western Arctic:
Conservative – 1 0
All others – 0
NDP – 1
Yukon:
Liberal – 1 0
All Others – 0
Conservative – 1
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
I like it !
I like your numbers … I like your style.
These projections are now officially approved, by Midnight.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
Add 10 to the Conservative number with the news of Bin Laden. Even with these 10 your Conservative number is still low. With all the vote splitting thats going to happen I’m figuring 202 seats for the Conservatives.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
I love to see the result for conservative majority to night
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
Conservatives with 170 seats? That is obviously bias, and pure fantasy on your part.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
That’s hilarious! How did you come up with these numbers? Did you pull YOUR hair out for hours? You are thinking wishfully big time.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
I do think that the Conservatives will win a majority, but 170 is high. I think it will be about 158.
If he is only a couple seats away, I also believe that he would be able to convince a coupel “blue Liberals” over to his party. There are many Liberals who cringe at the thought of the NDP runnign things.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
More wishful thinking.
Here’s mine:
PCs 144
NDP 77
Lib 59
BQ 28
Best!
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
Hey Doug. It’s not wishful thinking or otherwise.
It is an opinion.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
savage Did you not read the very top?
On how the figures were arrived at?
Quote ” partly on my desire to see a stable majority government in Canada,” “partly on my decision to move a few blocks of seats out of sheer gut instinct.”
So yes it is part bias. Then look at the COMPAS Poll.
Regional BQ 29 CON 181 GRN 0 LIB 13 NDP 85
National BQ 42 CON 194 GRN 0 LIB 19 NDP 53
you can compare the other polls here
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
For anyone wanting a conservative majority, it has happened.
How anyone could vote for someone that has lied to, cheated, and stolen from the Canadian public the amount that Stephen Harper has is beyond me, but apparently most of the country has fallen for the propaganda and done just that.
Lesson learned: Lie, cheat, and steal, and be caught at it and you’ll get a majority in Canada if you can sling enough mud to cover it up.
This majority might be fine for western Canada, but Harper has already said that he doesn’t view Eastern Canada as being part of Canada at all…so with this, we get screwed even more than normal. Goodbye any projects that might have made us haves instead of have-nots.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
To Savage: Maybe 170 was a tiny bit high…but not by much. Have more faith in me next time.
To Doug: Nice guesses. I think I was closer for the only party that counted once they hit 155.
To Stephen: I think you should publish your name and accuse Harper of stealing. And on top of that, feel free to let us know where he lied and cheated. And I’d like to hear more about Harper saying Eastern Canada is not part of Canada at all. He gained seats in Atlantic Canada. He gained a whack of seats in Ontario. He owned the prairies. He gained seats in the north and despite losing one in BC, he still owns a big majority of the seats in the pacific province.
Now as for slinging mud….I think your hands are pretty filthy.
Notice: Only variables should be assigned by reference in /var/www/wp-content/plugins/subscribe-to-comments/subscribe-to-comments.php on line 590
What I find interesting. Iggy was acclaimed Liberal leader on 2 may 2009. 2 years later to the day. 2 May 2011. Takes his party to their worst record ever.
You can take all the BS about Harper being in contempt of parliment. None of the general population really cared about it. They didn’t even know what the contempt charge was about. He didn’t get some info for the opposition. The people of Canada really didn’t want this election. Now we have a majority government. Things will happen for the better.
The best part of election night. Was the look on all the major reporters faces as the conservatives got the majority.
How could this happen. He has few seats in Quebec. If you took all the ridings less the ones in Que. and Ont. They voted for 1 party. That party would only need about 11 seats in those 2 provancies.
It great a majority government without Que. Take those 4 seats in Que away he still has a majority. Que screwed itself. Only 4 seats. They voted out some key ministers.
So I do not see any ministers from Que this time around.
Lizzy Mae. What she saying. Does she really know? She can not ask any questions unless the NDP or Liberals give her some of their time to ask a question. If the green would have gotten 11 seats then she could. any thing less you are not reconized as an official party in the commons.