I’ve been mulling over the recent Ontario provincial election and wondering if the dark cloud is truly as dark as I thought it was on October 11th.
Well it isn’t. I believe I have found the silver lining.
As per the recent Throne Speech, the federal Conservatives will be doing three things in the coming session of Parliament that when taken together are greater than the sum of the parts.
1) They will be working to move the Federal government out of programs that are Provincial jurisdiction and
2) They will be cutting the GST another point to 5%, and
3) They will be making broad based tax cuts.
When you mix these three with the previous promise to correct the Fiscal Imbalance the sum is greater than the parts. The Feds will fix the Fiscal Imbalance by letting the provinces take more control of their own spending and programs, which costs the Feds less and the provinces more.
Well there is a rumour floating out there that if the GST is cut a point, Quebec plans to raise the provincial tax by that same point to compensate for these downloaded services.
Well if Quebec does it, you can be sure several other provinces will too. And that probably includes Ontario.
When you think about it, if the provincial Tories won the election and then had to raise taxes, they would never have been able to live it down or criticize Dalton McShifty again.
But if services are downloaded to the provincial Liberal government and Yellow Bellied McShifty is required to raise taxes to compensate, you can be sure that tax payers will not treat the Liberal brand in Ontario well.
When Dalton first said he would not raise taxes and did, we were upset but we swallowed it. In the last election he also promised that he would not raise taxes. But if PST goes up to 9% when the GST drops to 5% then you can be sure that the Liberal name will be as good as dirt for one, two and maybe even three elections.
So there is the silver lining for you Ontario Tories out there.
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The Conservatives are giving the Provinces/Mayors the 1 cent of the GST that they’ve been asking for, just not in the way that they want it. By reducing the GST he allows the Provinces to take up the tax room and then in turn give it to the Provinces, who are responsible for cities.
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that should read “give it to the cities”
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Ahhh but BBS, no where in the Throne Speech did it say that the 1% cut was for this reason.
My point is that if the provinces decide to raise taxes to match the drop that the feds create, the provinces then become the bad guys…and considering Dalton fooled us once (shame on him) it would be a real wake up call for Ontarians if he had to fool us twice (shame on us) and raise taxes after he promised (a second time) that he would not do so.
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Oh, I know that Throne Speech didn’t say it. I think this was simply more of Harper’s long term thinking, back to when they first proposed the GST cut. Dalton’s definitely going to wear it, but he’s probably not going to have a choice. When the Premiers and Mayors continue with their 1 cent campaign, Harper or Flaherty is eventually going to point it out to them – I already gave you your 1 cent, go talk to your Premier. Linda Leatherdale’s Sun article already shows that Finance in Ontario knows this is the way to go. I’m sure Dalton knew all along as well, he just didn’t want to say it. When the time comes, he’ll try to lay off the blame on Harper.
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When the time comes, he’ll try to lay off the blame on Harper.
That’s exactly what he’ll try to do. But Mulder is right. He’ll have to wear it and he’s the one that will have to do the explaining.
All Ontario voters will remember is that Harper lowered taxes and McGuinty raised them again.
Harper is a genius.
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what the feds may give the province will take away. there will be no net gain for we slaves.
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Jack’s Newswatch
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Unfortunately, the Librano$$ will yell that their costs have increased because of the Feds backing off on provincial jurisdiction. Then they have two choices: increase taxes or download additional costs to the cities like the Tories did before. McLiar will not download to the cities like the Tories did before because he’s already said that he will take back some of the downloaded costs from the cities; so he can’t add burden while he’s trying to take some away. No, he’ll declare that this increased burden on the province was unforeseen during the election period and that the PST will be increased to make it a zero net effect in taxpayers.
If you remember, every time Mike Harris made a tax change for the better Chretien increased taxes to take away that advantage it gave the Tories. The Librano$$ creed always applies.
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According to Christina Blizzard’s column the other day, the Fibs misforecast the finances, being off by 16% percent or so (too lazy to refer to the column right now).
So, a lot of their promises will be tough to keep. No surprise there. Wonder who they’ll blame this time?
Should be fun to watch McGuilty squirm for awhile I guess…I’m just trying to look forward to something about the next parliament.
Christina also said they may not resume until the New Year which is actually fine by me. Less time in the Legislature means less time to ruin the province.
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Meanwhile, Sorbara leaves amid questionable circumstances.