The Numerical Truth About Ice Caps, Global Warming, And The Empty Threat Of Floods

I am starting to get quite upset at the fear factor card being played by environmentalistas and their ilk who think that the polar caps melting will cause flooding and devastation across the globe. So I am going to take a second and tell you a story my dad told me as a kid.

In the Greek city of Syracuse, a couple of thousand years ago, the king was having a problem with goldsmiths pilfering his gold by substituting lead in with the gold when it was melted down. Once it was reformed, it was difficult for the king to know if he was getting ripped by the goldsmiths.

So he asked his chief scientist, Archimides to figure out a way to catch them if they did substitute something in. Archimides was befuddled with the idea until one day, while dipping himself in the tub for a bath, he noted the displacement of the water. In this bathtub the concept of density was born. Archimidis, in his excitement at solving the problem for the king, jumped out of the tub, and streaked down the streets of Syracuse screaming “Evreka!, Evreka!!” or “I’ve found it!!, I’ve found it!!”

Density is how much mass something has with respect to the volume it takes up. Regular tap water has a density of 1000 kg/m3 . (A nice round number that happens to be that way because of the beauty of the metric system). But other substances, such as gold are much higher, whereas, oil is quite a bit lower explaining is why it floats.

Let’s apply Archimides discovery of density to icebergs. (Because after all, the north polar cap is just a giant iceberg)

First let me explain to you what happens when liquid water is cooled enough to form ice. The temperature drops and as water begins to freeze, it expands. This is because the density of ice is about 920 kg/m3, and that of sea water is 1025 kg/m3.

So what does this mean? It means the ice is less dense than it used to be as water. With this density decrease, the ice begins to float, because in a way, it is lighter than sea water. The ratio of ice that is “pushed” above water is about 10% of the mass of ice. This concept is best understood if you do not think in terms of ice floating, but instead, think in terms of the ice below sealevel being lighter than the surrounding water enough to lift about 10% of it’s mass above water. The mass in this case is the top of the iceberg but could be anything, such as ohhhhh, an expedition heading to the north pole or a harp seal waiting to become a nice jacket.

If you were to put a weight equivalent to this 10% on top of an iceberg, the iceberg would sink until it’s top point was just covered by water. In this case, that density decrease WOULD displace more water and raise the sea level. But in reality there is no weight to push icebergs underwater. There is only Archimides and the math behind density. And density says that they can freeze or melt all they want. If they do it while floating in the oceans they will not affect sea level.

That’s the Officially Screwed math lesson for the day. Now if you want to amaze your friends, take a clear glass jug, fill it about 2/3rds full of cold water, and toss in as much ice as you like so long as none touches the bottom of the jug. Then mark the waterlevel and wait for the ice to melt. The ice that floats up above the waterline will have no effect on where the water level is when it melts. You should note that the water level is exactly where you marked it.

Go and amaze your lefty friends with what they will consider a parlour trick, but you can rest assured is simple science that is over 2000 years old.

10 thoughts on “The Numerical Truth About Ice Caps, Global Warming, And The Empty Threat Of Floods


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    March 27, 2006 at 2:08 pm
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    I’ve created a new email address for the Canadian Heroes blogroll. From now on, please send all mail to cnheroes@shaw.ca In this way I’ll be able to do mass mailings to Canadian Heroes without having to sift through all the other addresses I have.

    As well, keep sending in posts that have military themes. I’ll keep posting them, and eventually we should be able to build a good number of regular visitors looking for posts on military matters.

    I’m also planning some initiatives; some simple yet powerful things we can do as a group to show support for the boys and girls we honor. I’ll be in touch about that in a few days.

    Thank you once again for the support; and suggestions. I welcome all comments. As well, please mail me the address you prefer I use when mail.

    Cheers!
    Debris Trail
    Canadian Heroes Blogroll
    http://www.cnheroes.blogspot.com


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    April 8, 2006 at 2:04 pm
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    For the ice that is floating, yes. But there are large sheets not floating. Antarctia. Greenland. N. Canada. All this is above ground. And definitely melting.


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    November 24, 2006 at 7:46 am
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    True an ice cube floating in water that melts does not overflow the glass like the arctic ice sheet, but the ice on top of greenland and the antarctic is what is threatening to put huge sections and thus millions of people underwater if the melt, which they are starting to do now. Have you seen “An Inconvenient Truth”?
    http://www.climatecrisis.net/
    I suggest you watch it and tell me the world is just fine.


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    November 24, 2006 at 7:58 am
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    Geoffrey (#3) You discredit yourself when you start using Al Gore’s movie for support. His movie is one of the biggest propaganda jobs known to man and I am sure Al and Tipper are living the high life again thanks to all the money that movie made them while fearmongering about the situation again.


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    November 24, 2006 at 8:18 am
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    Okay, you are right, everything is fine! You discredit yourself if you haven’t seen the movie to discredit it.


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    November 24, 2006 at 8:52 am
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    In 1986, my physical geography professor told me that he studied the permafrost in the boreal region of Canada. He told me that it was melting in 1986. This is ground that has been frozen since the last ice age. The way it melts is that the frozen water sublimates directly into the atmosphere. The result he said would be anomalous weather patterns in the planetary weather system in 20 years. Another thing he studied was polar bears. He predicted that we would start hearing news reports of polar bears drowning because they would not be able to traverse the distance between the polar ice and the shore of northern Canada anymore. They can only swim a limited distance before they become exhausted and drown. Due to the melt of the polar ice this distance is becoming beyond their ability. (see http://www.bioedonline.org/news/news.cfm?art=2246). He said that this would mean the irreversible melt of the polar ice cap would be nearby.
    Another thing I learnt at University is the concept of albedo. Here is a US Navy site discussing albedo. You can claim it is propoganda as well if you like http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~psguest/polarmet/clichange/content.htmlIce and snow reflect infrared radiation and water absorbs it. The mechanism of ice melting in the polar regions accelerates logarithmically as the more warm water there is surrounding the ice, the faster it melts the ice in the water. He also pointed out the Earth’s ambient average annual mean temperature is a figure to watch as the difference between ice and water is a 1 degree temperature differential at 0 degrees celcius. I don’t expect much from this site as it is politics, which is a bastion of dogma and philosophically supported lying, but please just study the facts and don’t take my word for it. Educate yourself so that you can at least argue the science. I don’t care about Al Gore and his wealth, but he points out a few things that should be considered. If you don’t want to watch the movie and post review, that is fine. I don’t really care. What I care about is the future of planet Earth for my children.


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    November 24, 2006 at 9:12 am
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    In 1986, my physical geography professor told me that he studied the permafrost in the boreal region of Canada. He told me that it was melting in 1986. This is ground that has been frozen since the last ice age. The way it melts is that the frozen water sublimates directly into the atmosphere. The result he said would be anomalous weather patterns in the planetary weather system in 20 years. Another thing he studied was polar bears. He predicted that we would start hearing news reports of polar bears drowning because they would not be able to traverse the distance between the polar ice and the shore of northern Canada anymore. They can only swim a limited distance before they become exhausted and drown. Due to the melt of the polar ice this distance is becoming beyond their ability.

    http://www.bioedonline.org/news/news.cfm?art=2246

    He said that this would mean the irreversible melt of the polar ice cap would be nearby.
    Another thing I learnt at University is the concept of albedo. Here is a US Navy site discussing albedo. You can claim it is propoganda as well if you like

    http://www.weather.nps.navy.mil/~psguest/polarmet/clichange/content.html

    Ice and snow reflect infrared radiation and water absorbs it. The mechanism of ice melting in the polar regions accelerates logarithmically as the more warm water there is surrounding the ice, the faster it melts the ice in the water. He also pointed out the Earth’s ambient average annual mean temperature is a figure to watch as the difference between ice and water is a 1 degree temperature differential at 0 degrees celcius.

    I don’t expect much from this site as it is politics, which is a bastion of dogma and philosophically supported lying, but please just study the facts and don’t take my word for it. Educate yourself so that you can at least argue the science. I don’t care about Al Gore and his wealth, but he points out a few things that should be considered. If you don’t want to watch the movie and post a review, that is fine. I don’t really care.

    What I care about is the future of planet Earth for my children.


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    November 24, 2006 at 11:15 am
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    Geoffrey (#5) who says I haven’t seen it?

    I have even gone so far as to research many of the incorrections. Here is a clip of some of the articles I have found.

    For example, he pointed the heat wave that hit Europe in 2003 that killed some 35,000 people with temperatures hitting 104 degrees Fahrenheit. But historically such temperatures are not unknown to Europe. In July 1921, a heat wave hit much of Western Europe with the temperature reaching 104 degrees Fahrenheit in Strasbourg, France. Gore also pointed to the monsoon storm in 2005 that dumped 37 inches of rain in 24 hours on Mumbai India. But storms like that have happened before—even in the United States. In 1921, Thrall, Texas experienced a 24-hour downpour of 38 inches and Alvin, Texas was soaked with 43 inches over a 24-hour period in 1979.
    Gore points to the devastation of the Hurricane Katrina and flatly says that global warming is increasing the intensity of hurricanes. But that claim is hotly contested by climate scientists. For example, a recent study in Geophysical Research Letters finds “based on data over the last twenty years, no significant increasing trend is evident in global ACE [accumulated cyclone energy] or in Category 4–5 hurricanes.”

    That last section is key. He took advantage of a year where randomness had many hurricanes hit coasts when that is not the norm.


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    November 24, 2006 at 9:37 pm
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    My favorite Global Warming comment was made by South Park… where all the adults were cowering in terror that the “Global Warming” was going to get them. I’m coming to the conclusion that the “fact” that all of the most ardent proponents of “global warming is caused by human development” are also the most leftist politically. Global Warming activism is nothing more than an attempt at Social change via enviromentalism… it’s a bloody socialist ploy. Yes… the world is warming up, but it’s NOT because of us.

    http://cjunk.blogspot.com/2006/11/global-warming-just-another-un-con-job.html


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    November 25, 2006 at 12:54 pm
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    I don’t really think that it is a socialist poly though. Most socialists I talk to are hell bent on cranking out carbon spewing cars at the factories they work in.

    I hope that you are right though. Meanwhile I am going to buy some property in Northern Ontario (north of Thunder Bay), where I have read that will provide some safe haven from climate changes currently occuring now, just to hedge myself.

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